Is VUCA dead? It’s a question that takes some explaining if you’re not sure what VUCA is. VUCA is an acronym and is fairly well known in organisational consulting circles. It is often used to describe the rapidly changing and unpredictable world that we live in. For those who haven’t heard of it before VUCA stands for: Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous. It was first coined in 1990s by the U.S. military to describe the post-Cold War era and the challenges faced in dealing with new global realities. However, it was quickly seized upon by business as a handy way to describe the global challenges faced more broadly and to help consider how leaders can continue to operate in such an environment. When you consider each element, it quickly becomes apparent that it reflects what has been happening in the world over the last 30 years:
- Volatility: Refers to the dynamic and unpredictable nature of change. In a volatile environment, things can fluctuate rapidly, making it difficult to predict outcomes or trends.
- Uncertainty: Describes the lack of predictability and the presence of unknowns. In uncertain situations, information may be limited, and the future may be difficult to foresee.
- Complexity: Involves intricate and interconnected systems or situations that can be difficult to understand or navigate. Complexity often arises from the interplay of various factors and the emergence of unintended consequences.
- Ambiguity: Relates to situations where there is a lack of clarity or multiple interpretations of events or information. Ambiguous circumstances make it challenging to make decisions with confidence.
In such an environment traditional planning and decision-making approaches were not as effective. Whilst there were no clear solutions to a VUCA world there were qualities that could be developed that enable the responses to such an environment to be effective. Leaders and organisations needed to focus on adaptability, flexibility, and develop new strategies to thrive in such a dynamic and uncertain landscape. Leading and managing in a VUCA world required a different mindset and skillset to navigate the complexities and capitalise on opportunities.
A whole host of management consultants and futurists have dined out on VUCA for many years and the different strategies for operating in a VUCA world. I’m not going to go into the details of how to respond in a VUCA world as you can just google it and find a myriad of suggestions. Instead, I want to focus on a relatively ‘new kid on the block’, an acronym has gained some interest and perhaps offers a slightly different view on what futures are emerging – it’s called BANI.
What is BANI?
Before I launch into BANI, it’s worth also noting there are other acronyms that have been used over the years (RUPT, TUNA) but they pretty much describe the same thing. Where BANI differs is in describing more of the future as we emerge into a new reality that still has much of the complexity and volatility inherent in a VUCA world but where chaos plays a much bigger role. The originator of BANI is a futurist called Jamais Cascio who came up with the term in 2018 and published an article on Medium called “Facing the Age of Chaos” in 2020 (https://medium.com/@cascio/facing-the-age-of-chaos-b00687b1f51d). In his own words he wanted to go beyond VUCA and not just provide a description but to capture the ‘feelings’ of being in this new world, recognising the importance of human behaviour. Furthermore, VUCA had been around for many years and was so pervasive that it almost seemed like it was now just an everyday reality. Since then BANI has gained some traction in attempting to define the incomprehensible change that many see emerging. So what is it?
In brief BANI stands for:
Brittle- Things that are brittle can appear strong and enduring. Indeed, they may even be strong but at a particular point there is a vulnerability that can cause what is brittle to shatter. There is a lack of resilience in the system or hidden vulnerabilities that cannot be seen. The nature of our fundamental systems which we rely on, such as trade, food and energy could be seen as brittle and we have seen examples of how quickly and easily some of these systems can falter.
Anxious- Taking on board both the VUCA world we live in and the other components of BANI we live in state of anxiety. Systems that can cause anxiety are those that present challenges with no solutions or where choices are irreversible and outcome unknown and potentially disastrous. The proliferation of mis-information is given as an example of an anxiety creating system, one that focuses not necessarily of proving you wrong but making you doubt what is true. The state of anxiety captures the human response to the challenges we face and leads to lack of trust and the potential for inaction for fear of unknown consequences. Anxiety can close down connectedness, create fear and splitting.
Non-linear- This points to the fact that cause and effect are no longer directly tied and our logical assumptions of such don’t always follow. Seemly small events or decisions (sometimes appearing unrelated) can have large or disproportionate impacts. Conversely, huge efforts may have limited impact. It can also include the impact of long time delays in events. A clear example being the climate emergency, in which industrialisation has taken over 100 years to impact on today’s climate and even if we were to reach net zero emissions there is a significant time lag before we see positive results.
Incomprehensible- Taking one step further than VUCA, BANI proposes that not only is the world complex but that there is the emergence of incomprehensibility. That it cannot be understood, or at least feels like it cannot be understood. We might think about this in the context of the emergence of AI technology, where attempting to understand some of the conclusion or outputs seems incomprehensible. Similarly, behaviours we see play out in the world may also be hard to rationally understand.
So how do you respond in a BANI world?
It’s fair to say that BANI doesn’t provide solutions, as such, but similarly to VUCA points towards how we might respond or adapt to the world. Jamais Cascio suggests that the responses rely on the same qualities that humans have used to survive significant challenges for millennia. Characteristics that are not measurable and perhaps seem amorphous.
Resilience– He suggests that Brittleness asks for resilience. Systems, organisations and people who are able to prepare for and bounce back from unforeseen challenges. Building resilience provides some cushioning so flexibility for systems and people to cope in crisis.
Empathy- Anxiety producing systems call for empathy. The ability to recognise that the chaotic and confusing world that seems to create distrust requires a willingness to be kind and forgiving and importantly to seek to understand. Anyone who has sought to build trust in an organisation knows that empathy has a powerful part to play in building bridges, encouraging reciprocity and developing relationships.
Improvisation- Non-linear systems need improvisation or the ability to adapt quickly to changing circumstances. Normal conditions might dictate particular responses that may be pre-planned. However, in non-normal circumstances specific pre-planned responses may well be detrimental or harmful. There is need for creativity and improvisation in our responses and to use what is at our disposal in adaptive ways.
Intuition- In response to the incomprehensible there is need for drawing back on intuition. Probably the most amorphous of the 4 responses, but Cascio suggest that the minds ability to read patterns and recognise hidden connections may be what we have to rely on. That gut feeling when something doesn’t feel right even though things appear to be fine. Recognising that the subconscious mind has the ability to see what our conscious minds cannot.
“Here’s the thing about intuition: only human brains can do it. It’s the product of millions of years of biological evolution. Reaching for insights when you don’t know exactly what’s wrong, or what to do, can sometimes be the only path to success — or even survival”
Jamais Cascio
So is the VUCA world Dead?
I don’t think so. VUCA still accurately describes many characteristics of the challenges that we face today and is still relevant to leadership in today’s world. But something new is emerging and I think BANI might point towards this. It also places due emphasis on people as the solutions to many of the challenges faced and asks questions about fundamental systems, traditional ways we may think about them and importantly the ways we think about each other and our ability to adapt. BANI might not fit into what we might call a normal or complete model. The responses Cascio suggests may well seem somewhat fuzzy but I can’t help feeling instinctively there is something here in suggesting that we might draw on the qualities that have enabled us to survive as a species for 1000’s of years.
VUCA solutions often point towards more systemic leadership responses to complexity, though admittedly there is significant emphasis by many writers on the need for new progressive leadership responses. I think this is where BANI meets with VUCA and it could be argued that there are many similarities with just a slight shift in emphasis. But I think the shift is important in providing a fresh perspectives from which to see the world anew and to ask if the responses to a VUCA world are good enough or demand something more.
I support managers and leaders to have ‘space to think’. If this has been helpful and you need some ‘space to think’ about how leadership operates in a VUCA/BANI world, then I might be able to help. Contact me for a no obligation chat and let’s see what happens.
Image: Photo by Brett Jordan on Unsplash– with thanks